European countries are taking drastic measures to limit the impact of Covid-19 on health and the economy in Europe. Such crises usually have direct and serious consequences for the entire population and economy. Given its potential to affect key economic sectors, the coronavirus crisis is expected to reduce some of the environmental and climate impacts of economic activities. However, large and sudden shocks that will cause extremely high costs to society are far from the way the European Union has committed to transforming its economy and achieving climate neutrality targets by 2050. Under the European Green Deal and the recently proposed European Climate Agreement, the regulation instead calls for irreversible and gradual reductions in emissions while ensuring a just transition and supporting those affected.
Reducing the impact of the current public health crisis
Europe, like the rest of the world, is facing an unprecedented public health crisis that is rapidly spreading across the continent. Television news regularly broadcasts reports on the number of infected and deceased persons. European and national authorities are applying drastic measures to limit and slow down the spread of Covid-19. Restrictions on travel, commuting and social gatherings are severely affecting several key economic sectors. Many flights are canceled and schools, restaurants and borders are closed. The term “isolation” (lockdown) describes the new reality in many European countries. Unfortunately, we are already witnessing a large number of victims.
The first and most important priority is to reduce the impact of the crisis on the health of Europeans and ensure the best possible health services for those infected, as well as well-being, employment and income.
Emission reductions and sudden shocks like Covid-19
In these difficult times, the European Environment Agency has been repeatedly asked about the impact of measures related to Covid-19 on EU greenhouse gas emissions. One unintended consequence of such sudden socioeconomic shocks may be further reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Other results have also been noted, such as temporary reductions in air pollution in parts of China and Europe (e.g. during periods of “isolation” in northern Italy).
Long-term exposure to polluted air is known to be one of the causes of chronic lung and heart diseases. Despite possible short-term improvements in air quality in some areas as a result of measures against the coronavirus, people with these diseases who have been exposed to polluted air for a long time may become even more vulnerable during this period.
In many of our reports, we have highlighted the link between economic success in certain sectors and environmental impacts. The current crisis is expected to have a strong impact on production and consumption patterns, such as reduced demand for mobility, including international air travel and daily private car commuting. However, to better understand the scale, duration and some of the expected and unexpected impacts, we need to analyze the data in different areas after the crisis is over. The European Environment Agency plans to evaluate these links and will present the results of its analysis in due course.
However, without major changes in our production and consumption systems, any reduction in emissions resulting from the economic crisis is likely to be short-lived and at an extremely high cost to society. Europe’s goal is to achieve climate neutrality through gradual and irreversible reductions in emissions and setting long-term goals to build a resilient economy and society, not through disruptive shocks. This crisis also shows us why it is necessary for this transition to be just. New opportunities and support need to be provided to those most affected by this crisis.
Climate neutrality as an obligation under Union law
Earlier this month, the European Commission proposed a European climate regulation that seeks to create a long-term framework and supplement existing legislation to achieve climate neutrality in the European Union by 2050. The European Union already has one of the most ambitious targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions, which is supported by a comprehensive legislative package. What makes this proposal unique is the fact that achieving climate neutrality by 2050 becomes legally binding. Once the proposal is accepted, the European Union and its member states are obliged to respect it and take the necessary measures to implement it.
The European Union has been reducing greenhouse gas emissions for the past three decades. The European Environment Agency’s latest assessment showed that in 2018, EU greenhouse gas emission levels were 23.2% lower than in 1990. It also says that further efforts and action are needed to reach the current 2030 target. a reduction of “at least 40% compared to 1990 levels”.
Without fundamental changes in our systems of production and consumption, any reduction in emissions resulting from the economic crisis is likely to be short-lived and at an extremely high cost to society.
The need for faster and bigger changes
Despite these reductions, the European Environment Report – State and Outlook 2020 (SOER 2020) mentions slower progress in reducing greenhouse gas and industrial emissions, waste generation, increasing energy efficiency and the share of renewable energy in the overall energy mix. The SOER 2020 report also concludes that if we are to tackle environmental degradation and climate change, we need to fundamentally change the way we produce and consume products and services. These findings confirm the urgent need for faster and more comprehensive changes in key systems, including energy, nutrition and mobility systems.
In this context, a draft European climate law was adopted, which is one of the key components of the European Green Deal and further raises the level of EU ambitions. The proposal calls for the European Commission to review the current 2030 target and explore options for a new 2030 target of a 50-55% reduction in emissions compared to 1990. It also describes how progress towards climate neutrality will be regularly assessed, among other things, based on the report of the European Environment Agency. In addition to efforts related to environmental protection, the proposal envisages a regular assessment of climate change adaptation measures.
The European Environment Agency, in its capacity as an independent expert body, will fully support these processes by regularly evaluating the progress made in the field of climate neutrality in Europe.
These climate goals cannot be achieved without facing the main challenge of sustainability. And while the European Commission presents other initiatives related to the circular economy, biodiversity and sustainable finance in the European Green Deal, our work covers a number of areas that support the transition to sustainability.
Setting ambitious goals in times of crisis
Regardless of the current significant reduction in emissions, Covid-19 is and will remain a serious threat to public health. In no way can we perceive Covid-19 and its multiple impacts on our society as an event with positive results. Even those of us who, based on our expertise, have been the loudest in calling for serious changes in our systems of production and consumption should not see this mass closure of society as an acceptable solution to the challenges of immediate and systemic sustainability.
We wonder if we can achieve our ambitious goals in the coming years, in which we will have to deal with the consequences of this major crisis. I think we can. My view is that a socially just transition that is planned and implemented over the long term is the only way to build a resilient society and a strong and sustainable economy. In addition, investments to mitigate the effects of this crisis on the economy should and can be fully aligned with our long-term sustainability goals. Even in these difficult times, the European institutions have confirmed their firm commitment to the long-term goals of the European Green Deal. This will require strong partners, and that is exactly what the European Environment Agency plans to be.
Article published in the European Environment Agency newsletter No. 01/2020 for March 2020.